It is important to differentiate between current patch-related issues, the capabilities of veteran players who can push classes to their limits, population and player-based issues, and the actual balance of the classes themselves. Without this distinction, we risk cherry-picking statistics out of context and declaring incorrect facts.
In my opinion, one of the main reasons certain scenarios have become more of a "meatgrinder" is due to recent changes, such as the quitter debuff or the addition of barriers, that fail to address a longstanding core issue. In certain timezones, one side often has an overabundance of
premade groups comfortably farming 12 vs. 6 matches, while the other side is nearly unplayable. This problem has persisted for years and remains one of the main unsolved problems. Hence, you will find me and others on the list of premades (i picked Nizzu alongside with me) twice playing the same archetype but having a clearly worse win rate for Order than for Destruction.
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T4 both event SCs - players with > 20 scenarios played and > 70% winning
CLASS CharacterName [Guild] RR EventScenariosPlayed WinningPercentage
SHAMAN Bambino [Team Spirit] rr83 101 84.16%
ZEALOT Nizzu [Team Spirit] rr87 77 87.01%
ARCHMAGE Hesperiell [Cyxapuku] rr88 62 70.97%
RUNE_PRIEST Nyzzu [Cyxapuku] rr87 58 72.41%
Additionally, the problem of defining "fair" matchups is always present. During EU primetime, I often observe that, considering current matchup imbalances, we frequently face a premade group plus 6 pugs against a double premade. From my personal observation, it seems that the pug setup on the Destruction side usually involves players who are more knowledgeable about the game. For me, it is now absolutely clear that regardless of the scenario system we have, experience will always trump setups. On the Order side, there are often completely disoriented players, even if the setup seems somewhat right, who either run in and die repeatedly or are entirely focused on objectives, leading to a 99% scenario loss. When playing with such pugs as a premade, it essentially becomes a 6 vs. 12 match.
Scenarios are inherently unfair and uncontrollable environments, whether it’s 6 vs. 12, 6 vs. full pugs, or any other combination. Assuming that adjusting group sizes to only 3 will fix this is simply the wrong direction. Players have been stacking in discordant groups larger than 4+ for years, and even now, disabling duo queue hasn't solved that issue—and it never will. This game was intended to be balanced around 6 vs. 6 at its core. This is evident in many core mechanics like guard, punt, cooldowns to certain abilities like detaunts, the need to swap guard, and range CC on certain classes such as Rune Priest and Zealot. These mechanics have an entirely different impact in any setup beyond 6 vs. 6. Creating a system that would address current low population issues and "fair" matchups in terms of experience vs. classbalance is likely an impossible task or would require an AI capable of learning from poorly picked matchups. Which is why I believe Scenarios should be 6 vs 6 strictly having a hidden MMR System behind it.
Some might cherry-pick specific setups or classes from the statistics, particularly ranged ones. However, even for ranged setups, a well-played melee group consisting of classes with gap closers like Marauder or White Lion can make it really hard for ranged groups to survive any encounter in a fair 6 vs. 6 match. It’s even harder in 12 vs. 12 without a frontline, and it's the hardest if the opposing faction has a frontline and additionally a ranged group, making 12 vs. 12 inherently difficult regardless of your setup (giving more credit to the Melee Group being unplayable at times).
As a healer, I can assure you that in the current state of the game, with certain elements like auto-attacks and covenants/prayers, certain supposedly defensive abilities like Devour Essence being pretty much broken, it’s virtually impossible to heal a tunneled target. Hence, everyone is now opting for Champion Challenge rather than debuffing a target with Demolishing Strike on tanks.
This leads to another significant issue: the balance between factions. You cannot play the same setup on Order with the same efficiency as on Destruction due to differences in abilities and morales (specifically Talon for ranged comps) and especially covenants being inherently different. For instance, a DoK's group having the ability to snare on hit is very powerful against ranged groups that need to kite (and still absolutely broken in damage numbers and the snaring component against any setup). As you can see, there are just way too many external factors why a Sorc/Squig setup is a better ranged assist group than BW/SW without even looking closer into the class balance of those classes (and yes squig might be overtuned atm, but that is also due to changes made to Autoattacks and heavily also the externa factors I named). Hence, you will find them in top positions in the statistics.