georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
Saying that Zealots and RPs will be fine because they're only losing 6% healing and their survivability will be about the same is extremely misleading. There are a lot of unwarranted assumptions you're making to reach that 6% number that aren't likely to apply to a real gameplay situation.
"Assumptions"? Yes. Otherwise you cannot really calculate anything.
"Unwarranted"? Debatable. Let's go over each of them.
georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
1) You're assuming that the zealot will be in range of the ritual of lunacy, which is unlikely now that the range is 50ft. If the zealot is in range, it sacrificing its best defensive tool - positioning.
Correct. I have a strong feeling that if the patch goes through as is, Zealots/RPs will be forced into significant differences in their playstyle and builds (gear and masteries).
If we assume that they don't want to give up on their distancing (both them and the other healer), then
New Ritual Healing per GCD spent = 290 * 0.30 * 10 = 870 heal/GCD per target
For 6 targets that's 5220 heal/GCD
For 4 targets (dps+tanks) that healing will be 3480 heal/GCD.
Putting that in the new rotation we get:
Total Heal = 3*3480 + 3*7164 + 14*2370 = 65112 heal over 30 seconds or 2170 heal/s
And since we assume you are not staying in range of the new ritual of Lunacy this means the heal crit modifiers remain the same (more on that later), resulting in a 23.3% healing reduction (instead of 6%).
georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
2) You mentioned proc overlapping with the new rituals, but didn't factor it into your calculations.
I assume you are referring to this:
You also get fewer ticks in the middle of their duration compared to before, but more ticks at the start and end of each ritual (that also occurs more often with the new changes). This is an issue since getting 2 procs at the same time (end tick of Ritual 1 and start tick of Ritual 2) basically wastes a proc.
This is a bit harder to model, but to give an example for Blessing of Chaos with 36% healcrit (+10% base)
- Old Zealot:
2 ticks at 0 seconds and 1 tick at each following 3 seconds till 27 s
At 0 seconds we have a 1 - (1-0.46)^2 = 70.84% to proc it
At 3, 6, 9, ... 27 seconds we have a 46% chance to proc it
The average chance to proc it at each heal instance is (0.7084*1 + 0.46*9)/10 = 0.485 , 48.5% at each instance
This leads to an expected value of 1/0.485 = 2.06 instance = 6.2 seconds (compared to the 5.9 seconds calculated without accounting for proc overlap)
This was enough for a 10 second duration buff to have perfect uptime in most cases
Chance to not get a proc in 3 consecutive instances =
(1-0.46)^3 = 15.8% or (1-0.7084)*(1-0.46)^2 = 8.5% if the refresh instances is involved (e.g.30 seconds)
- New Zealot:
2 ticks at 0 seconds and 1 tick at 5 seconds
At 0 seconds we have a 1 - (1-0.46)^2 = 70.84% to proc it
At 5 seconds we have a 46% chance to proc it
The average chance to proc it at each time instance is (0.7084*1 + 0.46*1)/2 = 0.584 , 58.4% at each instance
This leads to an expected value of 1/0.584 =1.71 instances = 8.6 seconds
(compared to the 7.2 seconds calculated without accounting for proc overlap)
This should also be enough for a 10 second duration buff, albeit more likely to get unlucky in some cases
Chance to not get a proc in 2 consecutive instances = (1-0.7084)*(1-0.46) = 15.7%
georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
2a) This means you didn't factor reduced uptime of BoC into your heal output - especially crippling because it also reduces the heal output of other healers healing that target.
As shown above, the uptime of BoC should be nearly the same due to being a long duration proc. The initial application will just be harder to achieve.
georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
2b) It also means you didn't factor the reduced proc rate of Tzeentch's Grip (absorb shield) into your calculation. Instead, you calculated it as uptime - a meaningless statistic because if it's up for its full duration it means it didn't absorb anything. A more accurate measure would be procs/second or procs/gcd.
The healing rotation calculations did not include shield procs.
If we examine Tzeetch's Grip with procs/second we have:
- 25% chance to proc it on a regular instance
- 43.75% chance to proc it on a refresh instance:
4 cases (both proc, neither procs, 1 does 2 doesn't, 2 does 1 doesn't)
Assuming that both proccing counts as 1 proc (due to instant overwrite) and knowing that their respective chances to happen are 0.0625 , 0.5625 , 0.1875 and 0.1875, we get 1 - 0.5625 = 43.75% to proc
In procs/second, this means:
- Old Zealot:
Average number of procs during 1 period = 1*0.4375 + 9*0.25 = 2.69
Procs per person per second = 2.69/30 = 0.0896
- New Zealot:
Average number of procs during 1 period = 1*0.4375 + 1*0.25 = 0.688
Procs per person per second = 0.69/10 = 0.0688
This is 23.2% less Absorb/s due to the Tzeentch's Grip procs from rituals. In reality it should be a bit better than that in case the recipient is under constant attack, because they might absorb some stuff between proc at the end of Ritual N and the proc at the start of ritual N+1 (in that fraction of a second).
georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
3) You also ignored the possibility of sever blessing in your calculations. This is significant for zealot heal output because:
3a) Ritual procs consistently cover your HoTs and other buffs from being severed and will now proc less.
3b) Now BoC being severed is especially crippling because it has so many fewer chances it will proc.
Correct. I mainly examined it from an orvr standpoint where Sever Blessing isn't as common of an occurence as is in City/Scenarios/Ranked due to the nature and duration of those fights. Your point stands.
georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
4) You assumed max heal crit for the sake of BoC uptime, but most zealots don't (or at least shouldn't) run maxed heal crit from renown. You can currently ensure very consistent uptime for BoC with 2 ranks of heal crit in renown, freeing up 30 renown points to spend defensively.
"Currently" is the keyword here. If the patch comes to pass as is, Zealots and Runepriests will have to focus even harder in heal crit so as to maintain their buffs. I would imagine personally that they'd even shift away from 6pc Triumphant due to that proc becoming more unreliable (due to reduced Ritual frequency and short proc duration) and would transition to 5pc Sov gear so as to increase their crit slightly more and their defences too. More heal crit than before = better heals which could counteract the heal loss from the Rituals, at least partially.
What you'll be losing with this transition is basically only the Increasing Impetus proc, which outside long/drawn-out engagements doesn't bring much to the table. This will be a marginal loss in orvr fights, but would be felt more in sieges and in City.
georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
5) You're assuming that the zealot skill rotation is the same pre/post patch. For example, while it was nice to have leaping alteration up, it wasn't necessary to maintain your heal output, so you could allow it to fall off for a few seconds if your group was under pressure. Now, the zealot will be forced to spend 10 GCDs in 30 seconds to maintain its hots. (Tzeentch's Cordial twice on two targets, 3 rituals and 3 leaping alterations 2x2+3+3 = 10). That means you're using half your GCDs on HoTs and it also means that if you fall behind on your HoTs (maybe because they are being severed more often) zealots will have a much harder time recovering.
Also correct. The rotation will have to adapt, and teams would ideally have to rely less on Zealot's ST healing in order to maximize their efficiency. Luckily, both DOK and Shamy (who will be paired with Zealot) will be recieving strong ST healing buffs that could compensate for Zealot's extra GCDs on hots.
georgehabadasher wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 1:39 pm
In summary, I feel that your post severely underestimated the negative impacts this patch will have on zealot gameplay. Zealots will have much lower heal/shield output than before, even with the buff to leaping alteration. They will also have much lower defenses as they'll need to invest more in heal crit to maintain BoC procs while also being forced closer to the frontline if they want to gain the benefits of their own rituals. They're also losing their stagger, one of their best defensive tools, if they want to spec all three rituals.
On their own, these changes would constitute a severe nerf to the class. However, when you add in the buffs that healing shaman and especially DoKs are getting, the title of this post becomes quite appropriate. It is not an exaggeration to say that this will be the end for zealots and runepriests as a competitive healing class. Their heal specs will be relegated to the status of Magus--playable, but by no means optimal and generally unwanted.
I may be understimating the issues outside orvr gameplay, but there I believe most stuff in my initial post should still stand (~6% less healing, ~18% less Absorb shields, nearly same uptime on Blessing of Chaos but new secondary effects to compensate). As I wrote previously, I think people will just swap to Sov mixes to counteract the defence loss, even if that means losing out on the Impetus proc.
As for stagger, yes, that will most likely be sacrificed. Perhaps for City and other organized content we will see it being taken at the cost of losing Tzeetch's Grip (and Wind of Insanity), but yeah.
I disagree on the fact that they won't be competitive anymore. Maybe not for city, but in general the secondary effects of the Rituals/Master Runes themselves are strong enough to warrant the slight heal/absorb output loss. Especially when your 2nd healer teammate will be able to compensate for it. I could theoretically imagine DOK/WP replacing Zeal/RP in every party, but certain new and old utility aspects of them are irreplaceable.
