Return of Reckoning

I recently realised my win rate for bags decreased drastically (1 white and 1 green is all I got from last week).
I remember that importance of the roll was decreased and contribution should now account for more (it was last week's patch I think), but I often got gold or silver medal for contribution, still no decent bags in the whole week.
I do run supply, work to take BOs kill as much as I can (when it is 40 vs 150 there are not many kills, but its the same for everyone) and defend/attack keeps, but I never rolled over 300 (I think 254 top) and never win blue to gold bags anymore. I'm never extremely lucky with rolls, but not this bad either (I suppose the max roll is lowered from the patch?).
My bonus for gold bag is now around 1300, while pre-patch I was always able to win before it increased over 1000.

Talking in chat I was told that quite a few observed the same issue (not talking about afkers, talking about active ppl).

While I don't think it is necessarily a bug (otherwise I would have reported it), I would like to understand how are the bags assigned, from my understanding getting gold/silver medals should now give you a good chance to win?
Is this lower bag win rate intended?

You get a silver medal if your contribution (before the roll) was 801-1200, and a gold medal if it was 1201-1600. Then the saved bag roll is added to that, and the RNG roll which is 1-500.

If the total score is above 1800 you will get a gold bag.

So if you already have 1000 as saved bag roll, it is enough to get pretty average contribution in the zone to win a gold bag, even with a unlucky RNG roll.


Note that all the above numbers are what they are currently set to and it might change in the future.

Many thanks for the answer.
Weird, I should have won a gold bag even only with a bronze contribution (650 if I'm not wrong) without even rolling.
Also lower bags would require even lower numbers, but still I did not win any bag.
I will check my total today (whenever I am there to flip a zone), but in case I will take a screen post it.

It seems for me its easy to get bags on zones that are active for a while before they flip and there is a good amount of fighting but if a zone flips quick and there isn't enough fighting you don't seem to have much of a chance at a bag now.