Return of Reckoning

Hello guyz,
During the last week, I have heard many people talking about Trivial Blows being better or worse than Futile Strikes.
So, lets' do some maths.

First, we need to understand how much damage crits really give:

For usual classes (with no crit damage bonuses), crits damage adds 45% more damage (on average).
Meaning that if your non-crit hits for 100 ... your crit will hit for 145.

Ok then but if I have 10% crit with one of those "usual classes", how much more damage% is it exactly ?
Easy: 10% * 0.45 = 4.5% more damage.

Not sure about this ? lets try to convince ourselves with 10 shots of this almighty 100 damage hit.
With 0% crit, you will do 10 * 100 = 1000 damage.
With 10% crit, you will do one single crit (on average) and get (9 * 100) + 145 = 1045 damage.
And yep ... that works: 1045 is 4.5% more than 1000.

So, if you have a class without any crit damage bonus and a X% crit chance,
Then, we can say that this X% crit change will grant you a (X * 0.45)% damage bonus.

Of course, if you play a sorc or BW with full combustion, this 45% crit damage bonus will become +145%
and the formula will become (X * 1.45)% damage bonus

So, lets rephrase our first conclusion then,
If you have a X% crit chance, your damage will be increased by (X * Y)%, Y being any value between 0.45 and 1.45, depending on your class/tactics. (I choose not to talk about any gear crit damage bonus, because, as you will see later on, it doesnt really matter)

First conclusion then:
X% crit chances increase damage by (X * Y)%, Y being between 0.45 and 1.45

Now, what does Futile Strikes 4 does ? it reduces crit chances by 24%
What does Trivial Blows 4 does ? it reduces crit damage bonus by 40%

Ok then.
I am still facing this ugly guy with his X% crit chances.
Which one is better for me ? TB or FS ?
The better for me will be the one that gives my opponent the less damage% increase with his X% crit bonus.

First, I have FS 4, How much damage% will his crits add ?
Well ... easy, he will now do ((X - 24) * Y) % more damage

And, if I have TB4, How much damage% will his crits add ?
Well ... easy again (X * (Y * 0.6)) % more damage (if the value is reduced by 40%, it means that 60% remains)

So, to sum up ...

If I have neither TB nor FS,
his X% crit will improve his damage by (X * Y)%

If I have FS4,
his X% crit will improve his damage by ((X - 24) * Y) %

If I have TB4,
his X% crit will improve his damage by (X * (Y * 0.6)) %

So, we want to know when TB4 is better for me than FS4 ?
Well, the whole point for me is to reduce the damage% his crit% gives him.
So TB4 becomes better for me when ((X - 24) * Y) > (X * Y * 0.6)

which gives quickly X * Y > 60 * Y

And fun fact, we can remove Y from the formula.
(So yeah, it means that whatever the class and whatever the crit damage bonus is, TB and FS have exactly the same impact ... There is no better or worse class for FS and TB)

which leads us to X > 60

And here we have our final results:

1 - TB4 becomes better than FS4 when you face an opponent that has over 60% crit chances.
2 - The crit damage bonus is pointless. So, TB is not better or worse versus a sorcerer or a BW


Groumf

That is taking into account only the average overall value over inconsequential sample size. The real difference is in the moment tho, where FS goes back and forth between 100% and 0% effectiveness(based on crit rates), while TB is always 40%.

That becomes especially relevant when trying to timestamp with crits, which divides the critrate by amount of hits to get a probability of desired outcome against FS. That being a statistical eventuality, where FS fails to do anything of consequence. While TB simply always sticks to the average value mellowing out the actually threatening numbers, while making it predictable, steady and easier to protect/heal.

DPS in any group has 60% chance to crit, if you ignore FS completly. Even, if they don't by themselves.
With 300 ini, your chance to be crit is around 10%. You should expect to be ini debuffed, and then your chance to be crit being ~15%. Obviously, thats not the end of troubles, as you can expect stuff like Crimson Death or Overpowering Swing debuffing you by 10% more to 25%. Now dps who had 35% crit by himself is 60% likely to crit you.

Proc on crits matter as welll

M0rw47h wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:12 am DPS in any group has 60% chance to crit, if you ignore FS completly. Even, if they don't by themselves.
With 300 ini, your chance to be crit is around 10%. You should expect to be ini debuffed, and then your chance to be crit being ~15%. Obviously, thats not the end of troubles, as you can expect stuff like Crimson Death or Overpowering Swing debuffing you by 10% more to 25%. Now dps who had 35% crit by himself is 60% likely to crit you.

You are totally right.
If you always face people over 60% crit on you, definitly go TB.
It is almost never the case for my -34% crit reduction tank or even my +10% crit reduction dps AM.
For my dps AM, my combat logs show an average of 25% on incoming crits.

The vast majority of people dont have 60% crit, whatever ini debuff you have.
For me, TB is better against those huge players that hit and crit like trucks.
Against all the other players, FS is far better.

But again, if you face those monsters 100% of your time, go TB.

Groumf

Nice calculations.

I think one thing is overlooked however, and sighy pointed that out.

Trivial Blows reduces maximum crit potential; aka maximum burst. Futile Strikes does not reduce maximum burst, only reduces the chance of that maximum burst occuring.

On paper it sounds like the two may be evenly matched, but in any sort of competitive group play, burst is what matters most.

With Futile Strikes, there's always a risk of getting hit by full bursts, especially in long fights (like ranked scenarios).

Caduceus wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:18 am Nice calculations.

I think one thing is overlooked however, and sighy pointed that out.

Trivial Blows reduces maximum crit potential; aka maximum burst. Futile Strikes does not reduce maximum burst, only reduces the change of that maximum burst occuring.

On paper it sounds like the two may be evenly matched, but in any sort of competitive group play, burst is what matters most.

With Futile Strikes, there's always a risk of getting hit by full bursts, especially in long fights (like ranked scenarios).

Again, you are perfectly right.
But burst does not often come from 2 or 3 skills. (Sorc rotations are almost often cleansed in a competitive group play)
When we die, we often see that we die over a period of 5 to 6 seconds, having to deal with 4 to 5 hits a second from many sources.
Meaning that it was 20 to 25 hits that really killed us ... not 3 or 4.

And having to deal with 20 to 25 hits from dots, auto-attacks, pet damage, skills etc .... makes me believe that FS is far more efficient to reduce the "burst" that killed you.

Groumf

sighy wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:06 am That is taking into account only the average overall value over inconsequential sample size. The real difference is in the moment tho, where FS goes back and forth between 100% and 0% effectiveness(based on crit rates), while TB is always 40%.

That becomes especially relevant when trying to timestamp with crits, which divides the critrate by amount of hits to get a probability of desired outcome against FS. That being a statistical eventuality, where FS fails to do anything of consequence. While TB simply always sticks to the average value mellowing out the actually threatening numbers, while making it predictable, steady and easier to protect/heal.

how is that 'always'
TB occur only when crit happen.
if you have natural low chance to be crit ( tanks ), you have less chance of getting TB effect.

plus his avoidance reduce hit chance even further.
huge 45 points to get 2~3 reduced blow during entire fight..
i changed back to FS after this test against mara.

plus his toughness reduce base damage before crit.
burst is not that great as tank.
saw sorc crit 750 and 1.7k with TB4
that's 1250 and 2.8k
2.8k is pretty rare, probably got all debuffs. still, 45 point for rare occasion is not best invest imo.

it's not simple as black and white.
see your class, opponent, playstyle etc.
i think TB better for defensive dps for sure.
against orvr mass attacks or SC small scale, it's hard to tell.
need more tests.

FS + TB doesn't synergy well.
FS reduce TB chance.

btw, TY @OP
really nice feedback.

Caduceus wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:18 am Nice calculations.

I think one thing is overlooked however, and sighy pointed that out.

Trivial Blows reduces maximum crit potential; aka maximum burst. Futile Strikes does not reduce maximum burst, only reduces the change of that maximum burst occuring.

On paper it sounds like the two may be evenly matched, but in any sort of competitive group play, burst is what matters most.

With Futile Strikes, there's always a risk of getting hit by full bursts, especially in long fights (like ranked scenarios).

Use Enemy Combat Log Parser.
Or this one https://returnofreckoning.com/forum/vie ... 66&t=18719

And see for yourself that its simply not true. It feels like that, yeah, but you will be amused how it is in reality. And in regards to 6v6 (not talking about jester's festival solo rankeds are) - its down to tank mistake and cc execution. its impossible to kill anything with damage reduction on your dps with guard and supported with not brainded healers, its simple impossible to die in 6v6 be it burst, morale drop or whatever, if ppl press their buttons properly you wont kill anything. its down to whoever switch faster, react faster and force opponent to mess up cc and (or) tanks do a mistake (bad enemy control, no preguard swap, challenge wrongly etc).
The way devs implemented TB makes it way too costy for being a gamechanger and thus mostly not worth to use.

nocturnalguest wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:43 am

And in regards to 6v6 (not talking about jester's festival solo rankeds are) - its down to tank mistake and cc execution. its impossible to kill anything with damage reduction on your dps with guard and supported with not brainded healers, its simple impossible to die in 6v6 be it burst, morale drop or whatever, if ppl press their buttons properly you wont kill anything. its down to whoever switch faster, react faster and force opponent to mess up cc and (or) tanks do a mistake (bad enemy control, no preguard swap, challenge wrongly etc).

Most of this is true, but if you cannot apply damage quickly, then you cannot capitalize on those situations you described. In other words, burst is still the name of the game in competitive environments.