Lots of Numbers: Twilight's Tide Event Scenarios

[Bozzax]

That is indeed what happens when you pit groups vs pugs in the current state of the game.

Small note: I think the reason that SH is an outlier for kill damage is because pet damage is not actually recorded, but it does count for Kill Damage. Sometimes a SH can have more Kill Damage than damage because of this.

Yep it is correct it is wonky

[trh382]

great post and data collection

thanks for sharing

[othr]

Excellent post and I totally agree at this stage in the game forcing people to do SCs for events is a bad idea.

[Scragmuncher]

Quite interesting to see after the amount of posts/comments I have seen on how order is constantly dominating sc's, when the data shows it to be quite the opposite.
Great work showing all this, cheers.

[tazdingo]

ouch... engineer just got turned into a non-class

[Phantasm]

Great statistical job man. If someone was in doubt yet, that numbers are solid proof that current matchmaking and devs approach to group (premade) oriented scenario content isnt working for anyone. The matchmaking system is needed on yesterday.
Side effect of premade oriented approach harm lower tiers and new players as well, EVERYONE has been on farmed side at least once, and its traumatic experience, which is later spread among new players - effect is common assumption that if u arent in a premade group you SHOULDNT queue for scenarios, otherwise you will only feed premades, or you will farm pugs.

Is it really what devs have in mind with their design?

Scenario content is one of last balanced in theory content for new players when they can join equally populated maps and in theory balanced groups to polish their skills so later they can join more competitive groups and support others which more then average skill set.

[Garamore]

Having to walk solo through a barrier into 12 people or get quitter debuff as a pug in serps passage is a new low.

[Everdin]

Can we have a statistic about % of stomps in discordant?

[Aluviya]

It is important to differentiate between current patch-related issues, the capabilities of veteran players who can push classes to their limits, population and player-based issues, and the actual balance of the classes themselves. Without this distinction, we risk cherry-picking statistics out of context and declaring incorrect facts.

In my opinion, one of the main reasons certain scenarios have become more of a "meatgrinder" is due to recent changes, such as the quitter debuff or the addition of barriers, that fail to address a longstanding core issue. In certain timezones, one side often has an overabundance of premade groups comfortably farming 12 vs. 6 matches, while the other side is nearly unplayable. This problem has persisted for years and remains one of the main unsolved problems. Hence, you will find me and others on the list of premades (i picked Nizzu alongside with me) twice playing the same archetype but having a clearly worse win rate for Order than for Destruction.

Code: Select all

T4 both event SCs - players with > 20 scenarios played and > 70% winning
CLASS CharacterName [Guild] RR EventScenariosPlayed WinningPercentage

SHAMAN Bambino [Team Spirit] rr83 101 84.16%
ZEALOT Nizzu [Team Spirit] rr87 77 87.01%

ARCHMAGE Hesperiell [Cyxapuku] rr88 62 70.97%
RUNE_PRIEST Nyzzu [Cyxapuku] rr87 58 72.41%

Additionally, the problem of defining "fair" matchups is always present. During EU primetime, I often observe that, considering current matchup imbalances, we frequently face a premade group plus 6 pugs against a double premade. From my personal observation, it seems that the pug setup on the Destruction side usually involves players who are more knowledgeable about the game. For me, it is now absolutely clear that regardless of the scenario system we have, experience will always trump setups. On the Order side, there are often completely disoriented players, even if the setup seems somewhat right, who either run in and die repeatedly or are entirely focused on objectives, leading to a 99% scenario loss. When playing with such pugs as a premade, it essentially becomes a 6 vs. 12 match.

Scenarios are inherently unfair and uncontrollable environments, whether it’s 6 vs. 12, 6 vs. full pugs, or any other combination. Assuming that adjusting group sizes to only 3 will fix this is simply the wrong direction. Players have been stacking in discordant groups larger than 4+ for years, and even now, disabling duo queue hasn't solved that issue—and it never will. This game was intended to be balanced around 6 vs. 6 at its core. This is evident in many core mechanics like guard, punt, cooldowns to certain abilities like detaunts, the need to swap guard, and range CC on certain classes such as Rune Priest and Zealot. These mechanics have an entirely different impact in any setup beyond 6 vs. 6. Creating a system that would address current low population issues and "fair" matchups in terms of experience vs. classbalance is likely an impossible task or would require an AI capable of learning from poorly picked matchups. Which is why I believe Scenarios should be 6 vs 6 strictly having a hidden MMR System behind it.

Some might cherry-pick specific setups or classes from the statistics, particularly ranged ones. However, even for ranged setups, a well-played melee group consisting of classes with gap closers like Marauder or White Lion can make it really hard for ranged groups to survive any encounter in a fair 6 vs. 6 match. It’s even harder in 12 vs. 12 without a frontline, and it's the hardest if the opposing faction has a frontline and additionally a ranged group, making 12 vs. 12 inherently difficult regardless of your setup (giving more credit to the Melee Group being unplayable at times).
As a healer, I can assure you that in the current state of the game, with certain elements like auto-attacks and covenants/prayers, certain supposedly defensive abilities like Devour Essence being pretty much broken, it’s virtually impossible to heal a tunneled target. Hence, everyone is now opting for Champion Challenge rather than debuffing a target with Demolishing Strike on tanks.

This leads to another significant issue: the balance between factions. You cannot play the same setup on Order with the same efficiency as on Destruction due to differences in abilities and morales (specifically Talon for ranged comps) and especially covenants being inherently different. For instance, a DoK's group having the ability to snare on hit is very powerful against ranged groups that need to kite (and still absolutely broken in damage numbers and the snaring component against any setup). As you can see, there are just way too many external factors why a Sorc/Squig setup is a better ranged assist group than BW/SW without even looking closer into the class balance of those classes (and yes squig might be overtuned atm, but that is also due to changes made to Autoattacks and heavily also the externa factors I named). Hence, you will find them in top positions in the statistics.

[ShadowWar]

Is it really what devs have in mind with their design?

Yes. The feedback has been constant, and overwhelming about this for a long time. Their actions have demonstrated they WANT farm fests. Guards were removed that insta-kill camp farming to allow it to happen being the most glaringly obvious choice. I can't think of a single design change to scenarios that has been in favor of making them more accessible and focused on the actual objective.

My wild idea is to remove all RR and quest requirements from kills in SCs. Make them PURELY objective based, and see what happens.