AI opinion on population trend

[abezverkhiy]

Last night I was browsing RoR data site https://maartenson.net/ror_graph.html and asked ChatGPT to analyze last 365 days of data and match it with main patches.

The analysis is quite long so I did screenshots, total 9 pages:

https://postimage.me/image/1.LhyXQ
https://postimage.me/image/2.LhyHM
https://postimage.me/image/3.LhyGL
https://postimage.me/image/4.Lhy4Z
https://postimage.me/image/5.Lhbdu
https://postimage.me/image/6.Lhbjc
https://postimage.me/image/7.LhbzC
https://postimage.me/image/8.LhP9q
https://postimage.me/image/9.Lhbk1

Not making any conclusions, just posting what AI thinks of the situation.

[rorswar]

Last night I was browsing RoR data site https://maartenson.net/ror_graph.html and asked ChatGPT to analyze last 365 days of data and match it with main patches.

The analysis is quite long so I did screenshots, total 9 pages:

https://postimage.me/image/1.LhyXQ
https://postimage.me/image/2.LhyHM
https://postimage.me/image/3.LhyGL
https://postimage.me/image/4.Lhy4Z
https://postimage.me/image/5.Lhbdu
https://postimage.me/image/6.Lhbjc
https://postimage.me/image/7.LhbzC
https://postimage.me/image/8.LhP9q
https://postimage.me/image/9.Lhbk1

Not making any conclusions, just posting what AI thinks of the situation.

There is this thing called seasonality and there is no point doing a 365 day period unless you do previous years as well, then compare month to month and determine a multi-year trend.

You may as well compare it against global temperatures as it currently stands. Correlation is no causation.

Of course population dropped atm. It always does every year during summer period. Question is how it stacks up against vs comparable periods in previous years.

[nocturnalguest]

So there is no correlation with patches. No surprise, but however summer factor kicks in like it always was

[spraim]

I remember that before, the usual online was around 2k, and at some point it surged to over 3k. After that, the developers started working hard to reduce the online.

[Wholdar]

Last night I was browsing RoR data site https://maartenson.net/ror_graph.html and asked ChatGPT to analyze last 365 days of data and match it with main patches.

I actually added a pop-trend graph aswell, that averages the trends out.

https://maartenson.net/ror_graph.html?gt=pop_trend



Probably gonna populate it with event and patch-dates sometime in the future.

/j

[abezverkhiy]

When I made this post I wanted to bring a neutral opinion based on numbers and content analysis without any personal bias. In my real life I look at numbers and trends for 20+ years so seeing a couple of silly comments told me that I forgot that not everyone has the same background and able to read and think numbers.

But that is OK, this is hardly surprising when seeing election results, news, social media etc. Same people we see there come to play RoR as well. There is still hope that developers are more serious as unlike us who only downloaded the client and play for free they have more to lose as they invested a considerable part of their lives on this project and want it to grow rather than fade.

Anyway, I uploaded the chart since RoR population data portal was launched (Jan 2025) and asked AI to go through all available data, comment on the trend and this is what came out:

https://postimage.me/image/10.LxzC1
https://postimage.me/image/11.Lxzpq
https://postimage.me/image/12.LxzhD
https://postimage.me/image/13.LxpuI
https://postimage.me/image/14.LxptK
https://postimage.me/image/15.LxpVX
https://postimage.me/image/16.Lx3Ro
https://postimage.me/image/17.LxpKg
https://postimage.me/image/18.Lx3Dx
https://postimage.me/image/19.Lx3T6
https://postimage.me/image/20.Lx3Az
https://postimage.me/image/21.LxW85
https://postimage.me/image/22.LxW14
https://postimage.me/image/23.LxW0E

Most interesting are pages 22 and 23

Lastly, I started playing this game since day 1 in 2008 and would like it to be successful in years to come. This analysis is mostly not very positive but there is good news too. Just read it carefully.

[Bankei]

When I made this post I wanted to bring a neutral opinion based on numbers and content analysis without any personal bias. In my real life I look at numbers and trends for 20+ years so seeing a couple of silly comments told me that I forgot that not everyone has the same background and able to read and think numbers.

But that is OK, this is hardly surprising when seeing election results, news, social media etc. Same people we see there come to play RoR as well. There is still hope that developers are more serious as unlike us who only downloaded the client and play for free they have more to lose as they invested a considerable part of their lives on this project and want it to grow rather than fade.

Anyway, I uploaded the chart since RoR population data portal was launched (Jan 2025) and asked AI to go through all available data, comment on the trend and this is what came out:

https://postimage.me/image/10.LxzC1
https://postimage.me/image/11.Lxzpq
https://postimage.me/image/12.LxzhD
https://postimage.me/image/13.LxpuI
https://postimage.me/image/14.LxptK
https://postimage.me/image/15.LxpVX
https://postimage.me/image/16.Lx3Ro
https://postimage.me/image/17.LxpKg
https://postimage.me/image/18.Lx3Dx
https://postimage.me/image/19.Lx3T6
https://postimage.me/image/20.Lx3Az
https://postimage.me/image/21.LxW85
https://postimage.me/image/22.LxW14
https://postimage.me/image/23.LxW0E

Most interesting are pages 22 and 23

Lastly, I started playing this game since day 1 in 2008 and would like it to be successful in years to come. This analysis is mostly not very positive but there is good news too. Just read it carefully.

rorswar already destroyed your analysis but I'd like to put a few more nails in the coffin. As rorswar said, the data is about as useful as used toilet paper because it has no YoY trend, this is basic data analysis when looking at a sample of seasonal data. A junior data analyst would know this

I think it's a good idea to match peaks and valleys to the patch releases, that was a cool idea, but essentially worthless for our "analysis" here because we can't compare it to other major patches. Again, there's no other data to review this against so all you're doing is "look at line go up, look at line go down" there's no operational value here.

Calling ChatGPT a "neutral opinion without any personal bias", this shows that you have a tepid understanding of LLMs. Your prompts are vague "make a much more useful graph of population trend" which tarnishes your very dubious claims and gives too much interpretive power over to the LLM

Also, there's 0 proof here that RoR isn't following the industry trend. You didn't corelate this data with other PvP-centric MMOs where the data is readily available as well. You're condescending tone and lack of expertise makes me feel like this post belongs in r/confidentlyincorrect

[nocturnalguest]

Its incredibly surprising how clueless people can be about what LLMs or RAGs actually do and despite sometimes tech background using it so zealously... Truly epidemic

But explanation for such behaviour is imo obvious lol
I want to believe (c)