City Winner History?

[wonshot]

Order has the better melee train with WL, Slayer and aSW, but almost all Order premades I've faced in cities with PNP have been the standard BW deathball comp because Order has too many BW/Engis. I can't tell you how many times we've queued into Bombling and known it was a free win.

Problem Order has is deathball is sooooo overused that it's now incredibly easy to counter as Destro have had sooooo much experience facing it: You see the BW ball approaching, you spread to avoid aoe and morale bomb, you then regroup after they've bombed and you've got a nicely grouped up bunch of Order squishies to nuke. Simple.

Things won't get better until BW and Engi are less prevalent for Order such that other meta comps, such as their incredibly strong melee train, see a bit more use imo. They need to ditch the 1 dimensional persistence with only running BW deathballs.

Not sure when "I" or we last overstacked BWs, but I guess you just wanted to get a quick jab in. Thats cute.
Won against some pnp with some lbl not even 3 nights ago, before you made this lovely post.
Nice BW stacking btw.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/ ... nknown.png

[SkPrime]

we used to see Tilean Warlords up and about as well until like a month ago (did something happen to that guild)
[/quote]

I was the warband leader and, sadly, I had to leave the guild. I think they are reforming and you're gonna see them soon

[Foofmonger]

Order tends to sit at roughly 135% healing (exalted defenses and focus mending).

Just to put this in perspective here for the peanut gallery, Foofmonger is justifying the effect of a single Chosen with something that takes 12 characters in an Order warband to achieve (and at the sacrafice of RP utility).

And that is if you pretend your 8 WP have an off defense buff up constantly.

You pretend, that anyone cares about 25% healdebuffs on non-focus targets.
On focus targets you always have 50% hd up.
For a healdebuff to actually matter you need 50%.

Well that's actually why the Chosen heal-debuff is good, because it begins to counteract Exalted Defenses and Focus Mending. It's less of a "heal debuff" and more of a "heal equalizer". The theory was that Order could stack more % heal increases, and to counter this, Destro would have more % heal decreases. As showed above, if Order is running ED and FM, they sit at 135% healing output, and what the AoE Chosen heal debuff does is put them back at around 100%. So in most situations its good for that singular purpose. You know what actually used to be very very OP? Marauder's 75% heal debuff, for anyone who remembers that.

I'm not gonna pretend like the Chosen heal debuff is bad, because it isn't, but it's also not gamebreakingly good either. It's good counterplay to Orders ability to burst heal for higher values (to Telioh's point, DoKs can keep up or beat WPs in sustained healing due to some other factors). As usual, the truth of balance usually lies between the two extremes of "this is crap" and "this is OP". But again, this is just offtopic at this point. Again, this is why I respond to posts like the first post on the chosen/kotbs subject, it's not about the specific argument but about showing people when their arguments have lost perspective due to internal biases.

[velenne]

You guys are having a completely different conversation about theorycrafting classes (one that is dissolving into personal attacks) in a thread about cities.

Please take it elsewhere. We were having a productive conversation before that.

[Alfa1986]

In fact, if we look at the number of instances and the percentage of victories, we will see that when the number of instances is maximum (population peak hours), then the percentage of victories order / destruction is practically equal (with a slight difference). And the largest gap is achieved when the number of instances is minimal (when there are few people on the server, morning, afternoon or late evening, night hours).
This suggests that during peak times of population, both order and destro have almost equal numbers of pre-mades and pug players. When the population is small on the server, one side is more organized (usually destro), and has a large number of pre-mades, while the other has almost none.

this also explains the fact that cities mostly happen at night or in the morning for the majority of EU players. simply because it is easier for pre-mades to organize themselves on one side and arrange a city with a small population during these hours. that's all. and it’s not a matter of faction balance/imbalance.

This simply isn't the case. I just took all of the city sieges with at least 25 instances (n=23) and found that it's still 60/40% favoring destro.

If we do cities with at least 30 instances (n=6).... Still 60/40 destro.

hmm, well, maybe there is some imbalance here.) Generally speaking, it is rather strange to see cases like 80/20, it turns out that almost the entire order was pug in that day?) The difference of 10% can be easily explained by a better organization, and a larger number of population on destro side.

[Foofmonger]

In fact, if we look at the number of instances and the percentage of victories, we will see that when the number of instances is maximum (population peak hours), then the percentage of victories order / destruction is practically equal (with a slight difference). And the largest gap is achieved when the number of instances is minimal (when there are few people on the server, morning, afternoon or late evening, night hours).
This suggests that during peak times of population, both order and destro have almost equal numbers of pre-mades and pug players. When the population is small on the server, one side is more organized (usually destro), and has a large number of pre-mades, while the other has almost none.

this also explains the fact that cities mostly happen at night or in the morning for the majority of EU players. simply because it is easier for pre-mades to organize themselves on one side and arrange a city with a small population during these hours. that's all. and it’s not a matter of faction balance/imbalance.

This simply isn't the case. I just took all of the city sieges with at least 25 instances (n=23) and found that it's still 60/40% favoring destro.

If we do cities with at least 30 instances (n=6).... Still 60/40 destro.

hmm, well, maybe there is some imbalance here.) Generally speaking, it is rather strange to see cases like 80/20, it turns out that almost the entire order was pug in that day?) The difference of 10% can be easily explained by a better organization, and a larger number of population on destro side.

One thing that might be worth investigating here is the outlier cities.

Looking at that list, the vast majority of cities sit in the 50/60% win percentage for Destro. However, there are a handful of 70/80% destro sided wins (and almost no order lopsided wins like this). Investigating why the normal 50/60% split breaks and why we get these 80/20% cities might be an interesting concept to explore. I wonder if there are any patterns in day of the week/time of day in these lopsided cities, such as "the 80% wins happen late night NA time when the pop is low", or "they happen on weekends", or whatever.

Basically, if we can discern why these super out of whack cities happen, (for whatever pattern/reason we can figure out) it will illustrate what the actual issue is. If there is no pattern, then well it isn't helpful, but we may be able to figure out that if these lopsided wins are happening at particular times/days, it may inform us of to whom is on and why those cities end up so lopsided.

I think, one thing we can infer from this data is that there is a weird distribution of win percentages, and that it's not statistically irrelevant that we have some 75/25 or 80/20 cities. I'm less worried about the overall average, and more curious as to what is happening in these cities, as these outliers will cause the average to drop when they are calculated in the total win rate, as we can see, these 75/25+ cities are not the norm or the average, so whenever you have outlier datasets like this it's good to understand why they are so far off the norm.

[velenne]

Times weren't being tracked until 8 July but since then there's been 5 lopsided destro wins of 70% or more. These times (in UTC which is EST+4) were:

Noon
Midnight
230p
11p
930a

Tough to see any trend there.

[Alfa1986]

Spoiler:

This simply isn't the case. I just took all of the city sieges with at least 25 instances (n=23) and found that it's still 60/40% favoring destro.

If we do cities with at least 30 instances (n=6).... Still 60/40 destro.

hmm, well, maybe there is some imbalance here.) Generally speaking, it is rather strange to see cases like 80/20, it turns out that almost the entire order was pug in that day?) The difference of 10% can be easily explained by a better organization, and a larger number of population on destro side.

One thing that might be worth investigating here is the outlier cities.

Looking at that list, the vast majority of cities sit in the 50/60% win percentage for Destro. However, there are a handful of 70/80% destro sided wins (and almost no order lopsided wins like this). Investigating why the normal 50/60% split breaks and why we get these 80/20% cities might be an interesting concept to explore. I wonder if there are any patterns in day of the week/time of day in these lopsided cities, such as "the 80% wins happen late night NA time when the pop is low", or "they happen on weekends", or whatever.

Basically, if we can discern why these super out of whack cities happen, (for whatever pattern/reason we can figure out) it will illustrate what the actual issue is. If there is no pattern, then well it isn't helpful, but we may be able to figure out that if these lopsided wins are happening at particular times/days, it may inform us of to whom is on and why those cities end up so lopsided.

I would not say that in that case (80/20) there was a low population on the server. 28 instances if multiplied by 24 players, it turns out a little less than 700 order players were playing the city then (general about 1400).

[Foofmonger]

Times weren't being tracked until 8 July but since then there's been 5 lopsided destro wins of 70% or more. These times (in UTC which is EST+4) were:

Noon
Midnight
230p
11p
930a

Tough to see any trend there.

Yea, I'm not seeing much. What days of the week were they? To translate to my own EST time:

8 AM EST (NA Morning, Euro Afternoon)
8PM EST(NA Evening, Euro Late Night)
10:30AM EST (NA Morning, Euro Afternoon)
7 PM EST (NA Evening, Euro Late Night)
530 AM EST (NA pre-morning, Euro late-morning).

The only rough pattern I can see here is that the outlier cities are happening at 2 different times more or less.

Time 1: NA mornings/EU afternoons (meaning low NA pop, probably medium EU pop).
My Guess as to whats happening: Generally in my experience these are cities that NA pushes the evening before, but doesn't end up getting to. NA logs off, EU logs on, and finishes the push in their morning/afternoon.

Time 2: NA prime times/EU late nights (meaning high NA pop, probably medium/low EU pop depending on weekday or not).
My Guess as to whats happening: Generally in my experience these are cities that EU pushes the evening before, then they start to log for sleep. As the population dwindles, the NA prime time players push the city.

One thing to consider with city times is also timezone distribution. The reality is that the vast majority of players on this server live in-between PST (Pacific Standard Time, west coast of US), to about what, UTC+3 for RU? With 24 hours in a day, that means that our playerbase heavily covers times from -8 (PST) to +3 (RU), but we are going to have a lag in activity/city pushes in the offtimes (so basically Asia time, the rest of the time between +3 to -8).

[velenne]

The lopsided wins are Thursdays, Fridays, Sunday and a Monday, averaging 17 instances with a range of 13-22.

The time period from the Morale Change/SW buff until about 29 June is a real golden age for the city instance. 13 destro wins, 10 order wins and 4 ties!

Before and after that it's utterly destro dominated with nearly 60 destro wins and 2 ties. No order wins.